The Geopolitical Re-Alignment of Hamas: Navigating Between Ankara and Tehran

Then-Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh giving a speech at a rally in Tehran on February 11, 2012.

A silent but intense war of hearts and minds has been a defining feature of the regional landscape throughout 2025, with Turkey and the Axis of Resistance (AoR) vying for the political allegiance of Hamas. This contest reveals a clear and significant trend: Hamas is increasingly aligning with the diplomatic and geopolitical positions of the AoR, a shift driven by pragmatic realism and a clear-eyed assessment of its allies.

The Syrian Litmus Test: Resistance to Turkish Pressure

A telling episode of this dynamic unfolded in March 2025. The Turkish government, through the AKP and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan, pressured Hamas to characterize the massacred Alawis in specific incidents as "Assad remnants." This terminology was designed to echo the narrative used by President Erdoğan and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, framing the conflict in sectarian terms favorable to the Turkish-backed opposition.

Hamas decisively rejected this partisan framing. Instead of adopting the requested language, the movement issued statements emphasizing the need to respect the territorial sovereignty of Syria. This position directly mirrors the official statements of Iran, Hezbollah, and Ansarallah, highlighting a convergence on a fundamental principle: non-interference in Syrian internal affairs and a rejection of the sectarian narratives that Turkey sometimes instrumentalizes.

The Historical Divide and the 2017 Pivot

This current alignment marks a dramatic evolution from a previous era of internal conflict within Hamas. During the Khaled Meshal era, a palpable gap existed between the movement's military and political wings. For instance, in a stark contradiction in March 2015, the politburo in Doha issued a statement supporting Saudi Arabia's military campaign against Ansarallah (the Houthis) in Yemen. Simultaneously, the military wing—the al-Qassam Brigades and its commander Mohammed Deif—were sending official condolence letters to Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, mourning the martyrdom of Jihad Mughniyeh in Syria.

This internal schism—pitting the pro-AoR leadership of al-Qassam in Gaza and Lebanon against the pro-Ikhwan (Muslim Brotherhood) leadership of Meshal in Doha—was fundamentally bridged in 2017. A critical leadership transition saw the rise of the Martyr Yahya Sinwar and Dr. Khalil Hayya in Gaza, and Ismail Haniyeh replacing Meshal as the head of the politburo in Doha. This leadership change coincided with the collapse of the strategic illusions held between 2012 and 2013.

The hope for a powerful Sunni axis, led by a Muslim Brotherhood government in Syria and Egypt, had completely evaporated. It became undeniably clear that only Iran, Hezbollah, and Ansarallah had demonstrated a consistent and material commitment to supporting Hamas's resistance.

Pragmatic Realism as a Guiding Principle

The leadership of Hamas is famous for its strategic realism. This pragmatism was evident in their 2012 decision to relocate the politburo from Syria to Qatar, rather than to Iran. This choice was a calculated move to maintain a vital connection to the Sunni Arab world and preserve strategic optionality.

However, realism also means accurately assessing who provides substantive support and who does not. From Hamas's perspective, the balance is clear. Turkey, despite its rhetorical support for the Palestinian cause, has not provided material assistance to Hamas comparable to the support it has extended to "Israel," particularly in the realm of economic ties. For Turkey to then ask Hamas to become a partisan actor, decidedly pro-HTS, in commenting on complex internal Syrian affairs, is a demand that ignores the material reality of the relationship.

Hamas is not going to do that. Its geopolitical compass is no longer guided by broad Islamist solidarity but by a pragmatic calculus of which powers have proven to be reliable partners in its enduring struggle. The trajectory is clear: as the AoR continues to be the primary source of tangible support, Hamas's diplomatic and geopolitical positions will continue to gravitate closer to its core.

• This article is written by Abu Dhar al-Bosni (lokiloptr154668 on X) and does not necessarily reflect the views of A.E.P. (the owner of the website), nor does it necessarily represent an agreement with these perspectives.